These 16 Races to Watch could determine Minnesota House control

The Minnesota DFL enters the 2024 election with a power trifecta — party control of the governor’s office and both houses of the Legislature. After two years of chafing in the minority, Republicans have a chance to win one of those legislative chambers, and possibly both.

To take control, Republicans must gain four seats. Yet despite the fact that all 134 House seats are on ballots, the number that are realistically in play is far fewer. MinnPost interviewed caucus campaign leaders and looked at the past voting performance of the parties in each district. In June, that led to focusing on 14 races that were truly contested. Since then, two additional races have been added: 11A in northern Minnesota and 57B in the south metro.

Related: MinnPost's June version of Minnesota House Races to Watch

Two other races are attracting a fair amount of attention from funders and are worth keeping an eye on but don’t yet appear likely to flip. The first is District 45A in the west metro where GOP incumbent Andrew Myers is facing DFL rival Tracey Breazeale. Democrats are investing in that race, partly because they are well funded and can afford some stretch districts. Joe Biden carried this district by 1.2 percentage points and Tim Walz carried it by a similar 1.39 percentage points. But Myers won by 6 points in 2022, and Republicans carried two other down ballot races — attorney general and auditor by 9 points.

The other race getting DFL financial attention is 55A in the south metro, where incumbent Jess Hanson is in a rematch of a 2022 race she won by 6 points against Gabriela Kroetch. Other political fundamentals make this a DFL district — Biden by 11.6 points, Walz by 11.44 points. U.S. Rep. Angie Craig carried 55A by 8.16 points.

Here is the 2024 Races To Watch, updated with two additional races and with the addition of campaign finance data from the September reports.   

Related | Is the Minnesota House up for grabs in the 2024 election or will the DFL hold it?

DFL-held seats

7B

This Iron Range seat has been filled by Dave Lislegard since 2019, a rare DFL seat in the area that has been trending GOP for a decade and the only DFL House district that also supported Donald Trump in 2020. Lislegard made a surprise Memorial Day retirement announcement, leaving the DFL to scramble for a replacement. The new candidate is Eveleth resident Lorrie Janatopoulos, the former director of Career Force at the state Department of Employment and Economic Development. Republicans nominated Cal Warwas of Clinton Township after a contested primary.

2022 House results:
Dave Lislegard (DFL), 51.1%
Matt Norri (GOP), 48.8%

Other results:
2020 President, R +4.5 percentage points
2022 Governor, R + 0.02 percentage points
2022 Secretary of State D + 2 percentage points
2022 State Auditor R + 3.4 percentage points
2022 Attorney General R +5.76 percentage points

14B

Dan Wolgamott is 33 years old and has been on the ballot for St. Cloud-area legislative seats five times in 10 years, losing his first two attempts (one by 141 votes) and then winning a House seat in 2018 and defending it in 2020 and 2022. A driving-while-intoxicated arrest last year slowed his legislative career, but he remains well known in the district. Sue Ek is the GOP challenger this year, a first-time candidate who has served on a local transportation advisory board and on her church council. She is also communications director for a national Catholic organization that advocates natural family planning methods, according to its website. 

Related: Why two state House races in central Minnesota are being closely watched

2022 House results:
Dan Wolgamott (DFL), 51.8%
Aaron Henning (GOP) 48.1%

Other results:
2020 President D +4.2 percentage points
2022 Governor D +3.74 percentage points
2022 Attorney General R +0.3 percentage points
2022 Secretary of State D +7.7 percentage points
2022 State Auditor R +2.1 percentage points

18A

Jeff Brand of St. Peter will be on the House ballot for the fourth time this fall, but he hasn’t won all of those races. An incumbent in 2020, he lost a reelection bid that year by 108 votes, regaining the seat in 2022 by defeating the person who’d knocked him off. Erica Schwartz is the new GOP challenger. A cancer survivor who lost her former husband in a car accident while she was pregnant with a child, Schwartz owns a convenience store with her husband in Nicollet.

2022 House results:
Jeff Brand (DFL), 51%
Susan Akland (GOP), 49%

Other results:
2020 President D +2.8 percentage points
2022 Governor D +5.9 percentage points
2022 Attorney General R +0.5 percentage points
2022 Secretary of State D +4.8 percentage points
2022 State Auditor R +2.46 percentage points

26A

This seat became open when longtime DFL Rep. Gene Pelowski, first elected in 1986, announced his retirement. After both parties had contested primaries, the GOP nominated Aaron Repinski and the DFL nominated Sarah Kruger. Repinski is a Winona City Council member and business owner. Kruger is the chief of staff for FairVote MN, an organization that promotes ranked choice voting. She unsuccessfully challenged GOP Sen. Jeremy Miller in 2020.

2022 House results:
Gene Pelowski (DFL), 55%
Stephen James Doerr (GOP), 44.85%

Other results:
2020 President, D +5.4 percentage points
2022 Governor, D +4.55 percentage points
2022 Attorney General, D +0.6 percentage points
2022 Secretary of State, D +3.92 percentage points
2022 State Auditor, R +1 percentage points

32B

This is another district that has swung between the parties in the last several cycles. Incumbent Matt Norris defeated then-incumbent Don Raleigh last election and faces GOP candidate Alex Moe this year. Norris is a lawyer in Blaine and is the vice chair of the Taxes Committee. Moe is pursuing a law degree and works for the Anoka County courts administration. He ran for a Duluth-centered state Senate seat in 2022.

2022 House results:
Matt Norris (DFL), 51%
Don Raleigh (GOP), 49%

Other results:
2020 President, D +5 percentage points
2022 Governor, D +6.1 percentage points
2022 Attorney General, R +3.47 percentage points
2022 Secretary of State, D +6.46 percentage points
2022 State Auditor, R +0.9 percentage points

35A

Rep. Zack Stephenson has been one of the highest-profile members of the House since being elected in 2018. As chair of the Commerce Committee, he was the lead sponsor of the recreational cannabis bill and nearly passed a sports betting bill this session. Sports betting factors into the campaign of his GOP challenger, Josh Jungling. Jungling is the gambling manager for the Anoka Ramsey Athletic Association, a youth sports organization that raises money via pull tabs that are placed in bars and restaurants. While Stephenson’s final proposal gave charitable gambling a share of sports betting revenue, charitable gambling supporters had butted heads with DFL leadership over the issue.

2022 House results:
Zack Stephenson (DFL), 52.4%
John Heinrich (GOP), 47.5%

Other results:
2020 President, D +3.9 percentage points
2022 Governor, D +6.94 percentage points
2022 Attorney General, R +1.0 percentage points
2022 Secretary of State, D +8.3 percentage points
2022 State Auditor, R +0.9 percentage points

35B

Jerry Newton of Coon Rapids is a former state senator who is stepping down after a single term in the House. As soon as he made that announcement, Kari Rehrauer announced her candidacy for the seat. Rehrauer is a Coon Rapids City Council member who came within 186 votes in one of the most-expensive races last election. Republican Steve Pape is a Vietnam War veteran and union engineer.

2022 House results:
Jerry Newton (DFL), 50.64%
Polly Matteson (GOP), 49.3%

Other results:
2020 President, D +3.9 percentage points
2022 Governor, D +4.1 percentage points
2022 Attorney General, R +4.3 percentage points
2022 Secretary of State, D +5.3 percentage points
2022 State Auditor, R +3.7 percentage points

48B

Lucy Rehm of Chanhassen is serving her first term in the House after winning a close race against a GOP incumbent. Her GOP opponent is Caleb Steffenhagen, a National Guard officer and teacher. If there is a district that represents formerly GOP districts trending toward the DFL, where the abortion issue was central in 2022, it is this one.

2022 House results:
Lucy Rehm (DFL), 51%
Greg Boe (GOP), 49%

Other results:
2020 President, D +11 percentage points
2022 Governor, D +9.4 percentage points
2022 Attorney General, R +1.3 percentage points
2022 Secretary of State, D +9.3 percentage points
2022 State Auditor, R +1.7 percentage points

54A

The one thing that can be said for this race, this year, is that it is finally a straight, GOP vs. DFL, election. Former Shakopee Mayor Brad Tabke was the incumbent in 2018 who lost a three-person race in 2020 when a legal marijuana candidate — who may or may not have been someone meant to skim votes from the DFL — turned the seat over to Erik Mortensen. While there were three candidates in 2022 as well, Tabke prevailed. This year he faces Bloomington police officer and school resource officer Aaron Paul.

2022 House results:
Brad Tabke (DFL), 51.8%
Erik Mortensen (GOP), 43.5%
Ryan Martin (Legal Marijuana Now), 4.3%

Other results:
2020 President, D +8 percentage points
2022 Governor, D +9.1 percentage points
2022 Attorney General, D +0.03 percentage points
2022 Secretary of State, D +9.3 percentage points
2022 State Auditor, R +0.6 percentage points

Republican-held seats

3B

This was always going to be the DFL’s top target, at least since Republican Natalie Zeleznikar defeated 23-term DFL incumbent Mary Murphy by 33 votes. The voting fundamentals favor Democrats. Zeleznikar founded two long-term health care facilities and wrote a book about her experience with breast cancer. The DFL candidate is Mark Munger, a retired district court judge who served 20 years. His uncle was Willard Munger, a state representative who is the namesake for the Munger Trail between Hinckley and Duluth.

2022 House results:
Natalie Zeleznikar (GOP), 50%
Mary Murphy (DFL), 49.9%

Other results:
2020 President, D +5.5 percentage points
2022 Governor, D +10.7 percentage points
2022 Attorney General, D +2.8 percentage points
2022 Secretary of State, D +9.2 percentage points
2022 State Auditor, D +3 percentage points

11A

This is a rematch from the 2022 House elections that Jeff Dotseth won by a little less than 2.5 percentage points — 454 votes. This race had not been on our Races to Watch list in June, but Dotseth’s campaign has since been rocked by reports of a divorce that alleged domestic abuse and violence that included arrests and charges. Police reports verified some of the charges raised by a former wife and step son. Radosevich, an attorney, is also the publisher of the Pine Knot News and owns restaurants in the district. This was a narrow Joe Biden district with the Democrat winning by less than a percentage point.

2022 House results:
Jeff Dotseth (GOP), 51.16%
Pete Radosevich (DFL), 48.71%

Other results:
2020 President, D +0.7%
2022 Governor, D +3.14%
2022 Attorney General, R +3.55%
2022 Secretary of State, D +3.12%
2022 Auditor, R +3.3%

14A

This is the other half of the district that is a DFL target. Bernie Perryman won the seat by 201 votes, and it has been close in other partisan races. Perryman owns two franchise stores and is a former chair of the St. Cloud Chamber of Commerce. The DFL candidate is Abdi Daisane, who immigrated to the U.S. at age 15. He owns a child care center in St. Cloud.

Related: Why two state House races in central Minnesota are being closely watched

2022 House results:
Bernie Perryman (GOP), 50.64%
Tami Calhoun (DFL), 49.25%

Other results:
2020 President, D +2.5 percentage points
2022 Governor, D +1.7 percentage points
2022 Attorney General, R +3 percentage points
2022 Secretary of State, D +3.3 percentage points
2022 State Auditor, R +5.75 percentage points

36A

Elliot Engen of Lino Lakes was 24 when he was sworn in to the Minnesota House, the first of two Gen Z members of that chamber and the only Republican. In 2020 he lost a slightly differently configured district to then-incumbent Ami Wazlawik by 100 votes. On the DFL side is Janelle Calhoun, an executive director of a health-care related foundation, who also lives in Lino Lakes.

2022 House results:
Elliot Engen (GOP), 51.4%
Susie Strom (DFL), 48.6%

Other results:
2020 President, D +2.5 percentage points
2022 Governor, D +3.2 percentage points
2022 Attorney General, R +7.78 percentage points
2022 Secretary of State, D +4 percentage points
2022 State Auditor, R +6.8 percentage points

41A

In 2022, Republican Mark Wiens defeated DFLer Pat Driscoll by 128 votes. Wiens has now decided to run for Washington County commissioner, making what would have been a close race an open seat. The GOP primary winner is Wayne Johnson who will face off against retired St. Paul police officer Lucia Wroblewski in what remains a true swing district along the St. Croix River.

2022 House results:
Mark Weins (GOP), 50.24%
Pat Driscoll (DFL), 49.7%

Other results:
2020 President, D +4.1 percentage points
2022 Governor, D +5 percentage points
2022 Attorney General, R +5 percentage points
2022 Secretary of State, D +5.6 percentage points
2022 State Auditor, R +3.9 percentage points

41B

The other half of district 41 is also an open seat due to the decision by first-term incumbent Shane Hudella, a Republican, to not seek a second term. Tom Dippel is the GOP candidate, having lost a close state Senate race to Judy Seeberger by 321 votes, a victory that secured the DFL the majority in the Senate and a trifecta. Dippel, 0f Cottage Grove, carried this half of the district by 75 votes in 2022. On the DFL side is Hastings City Council member Jen Fox.

2022 House results:
Shane Hudella (GOP), 51%
Tina Folch (DFL), 49%

Other results:
2020 President, D +0.8 percentage points
2022 Governor, D +3 percentage points
2022 Attorney General, R +5.5 percentage points
2022 Secretary of State, D +4 percentage points
2022 State Auditor, R +5.4 percentage points

57B

Rep. Jeff Witte is a former Burnsville police officer and school resource officer who was one of the GOP leads in the work to resolve the issue of how such school officers use force. He is facing off against Brian Cohn, a project manager and product development engineer who is active in masters swimming competitions. This is a Biden and Walz district that also favored Republicans for attorney general and auditor in 2022.

2022 House results:
Jeff Witte, (GOP) 51.16%
Erin Press, (DFL) 48.28%

Other results:
2020 President, D +1.9%
2022 Governor, D +2.29%
2022 Attorney General, R +6.95%
Secretary of State, D +3.02%
Auditor, R +6.69%

Editor's note: This story has been updated to correct the shading color on the detailed district maps for 48B and 54A.

Peter Callaghan

Peter Callaghan covers state government for MinnPost. Follow him on Twitter @CallaghanPeter or email him at pcallaghan@minnpost.com.