If you want to understand how much an electorate can shift over a short couple of years, look no further than Tuesday’s primary election between Democratic U.S. Rep. Ilhan Omar and former Minneapolis City Council member Don Samuels.
Omar, a “squad” member in Congress who has been critical of Israel, was nearly ousted from the November ballot in the 2022 primary, eking out a narrow, 2-percentage-point victory over Samuels in the 5th Congressional District. In the same race this year, Omar beat Samuels by more than 13 percentage points.
How did that happen?
Many factors could be considered in this, said Corey Day, former executive director of the Minnesota DFL and owner of local political consulting firm Blue Ox Strategies. First and foremost, Omar put a lot more energy and focus in this race than she did in the last, he said. Not only did Omar’s campaign funnel far more money into the race, Omar raised more than $6.6 million in campaign cash and Samuels raised more than $1.4 million.
Groups supporting Omar also independently spent nearly $550,000 to boost her campaign, according to a MinnPost analysis of Federal Election Commission records. Additionally, Make a Difference Minnesota, an organization connected to an AIPAC political action committee, spent $110,000 in support of Samuels and mailed out flyers attacking Omar.
Related: D.C. Memo: Hot rematch between Omar and Samuels heads to the finish line, with a bizarre twist
In addition to spending more money on her campaign, Omar also gave more attention to a range of areas in her district this year, including those she hadn’t spent as much time in in the past, Day said.
“A more well-rounded campaign was brought this time,” Day said. “I think what you saw this time was Ilhan was just someone with popularity in this district. Even if she might be polarizing to some nationally, she still has an extremely strong base.”
Overall, the issues that are top of mind for voters have also changed. In 2022, Samuels was running heavily on public safety.
“Two years ago, I think you had more of an opportunity for that because of what was going on issue-wise around the city,” Day said.
It had only been two years since George Floyd’s murder sparked calls among several Minneapolis City Council members to defund the police, and Omar defended that view and also endorsed an effort to amend the city’s charter and replace the police department with a public safety department. Later, though, she broke with other “Squad” members to vote in favor of a compromise police funding bill in the House.
Still, the public safety debate that took center stage in the 2022 Omar-Samuels primary seemed to reflect a political divide seen largely at the city level within Minneapolis between more and less progressive members of the council. This time around, however, that divide didn’t seem to bleed into the congressional race as much, with Omar earning more votes than Samuels in all but one Minneapolis City Council ward and increasing her margin of victory in many precincts.
There wasn’t enough difference between the 2022 primary and this year’s for people to get excited about it, said Annette Meeks, who worked for decades in Republican politics both in Minnesota and Washington, D.C. She also lived in the 5th Congressional District in 2022 but has since moved. “Crime was an enormous top-of-mind topic back in 2022; now it isn’t so much,” she said.
“People generally think: if you’re close you should run again,” she said. “Sometimes that’s true. But generally when you’re running against an incumbent – it’s because people wanted to fire her from her job in Congress. That just wasn’t there this time.”
In lieu of a local debate over public safety, the war between Israel and Hamas prevailed as a top issue addressed by candidates this year. In 2022, the Samuels campaign received support from the American Israel Political Action Committee (AIPAC), whose PAC gave $350,000 to an organization that ran independent ads against Omar in the last contest between Samuels and the congresswoman two years ago. But AIPAC did not intervene in this race, preferring instead to concentrate its efforts and resources to knocking off two other “Squad” members, Democratic U.S. Reps. Cori Bush of Missouri and Jamaal Bowman of New York.
In 2022, Samuels represented an alternative option to many who felt left behind by Omar, Samuels said at his watch party Tuesday night.
This year, the energy between watch parties was night and day. Samuels had a far smaller turnout, while the crowd at Nighthawks in Minneapolis cheering for Omar could be heard outside on the street.
In 2022, locals knocked on doors and nearly clinched a Samuels primary win. That enthusiasm inspired John Isen of San Francisco to travel to California this week to help Samuels get out the vote.
“I was looking for a race I thought would be close,” Isen said, noting the close run Samuels had in 2022. “I was looking for a cause. I was looking for a cause, an issue, something to be involved in.”
Isen watched excitedly as Samuels entered the primary night watch party at Canopy by Hilton in downtown Minneapolis. But once the results rolled in, those hoping a second time would push their candidate over the edge were disappointed.
Samuels hasn’t said whether he would try to challenge Omar again, but in his post-primary statement said that despite the loss, “the results show that people are hungry for a different approach.”
This story has been updated to reflect that The Make a Difference Minnesota PAC spent about $110,000, not $30,000 on flyers attacking Omar.
Michael Nolan is a freelance data journalist working with MinnPost on 2024 election coverage.
Winter Keefer
Winter Keefer is MinnPost's Metro reporter. Follow her on Twitter or email her at wkeefer@minnpost.com.
