For a race with so much at stake, the only Minnesota state Senate seat on the November ballot seems a bit under the political radar.
Competition for money and attention from other races? Political fundamentals favoring the DFL? Political fatigue?
Whatever the reason, the one race that will decide which party controls the Senate when the Legislature convenes in January has become just another campaign in a sea of campaigns. A battleground campaign, for sure, but on level with a dozen House races than far ahead of it.
Which is exactly how DFL strategists planned it. Timing the resignation of former state Sen. Kelly Morrison so that the special election to replace her comes amidst a crowded fall campaign was intentional. Otherwise, the battle might have drawn a lot more attention and a lot more money.
Morrison could have waited until she won the seat now held by 3rd District U.S. Rep. Dean Phillips. But that would have triggered a single-race special election sometime in early 2025. Instead, she resigned June 6, the day after candidates who had already filed for other offices could have withdrawn that filing and run for Congress instead. It also put the special elections on the same days as the regular state primary and general elections.
“It just makes common sense when you think about the number of legislative seats that all of the allies on both sides have to compete in as well as the congressional races and the presidential race,” state DFL Chair Ken Martin said. “The resources in a general election are split among many different priorities.”
And if it had been set for February of 2025? “This would be the only game in town and every partner on both sides would be doubling down and all-in on this race — not just in Minnesota but nationally,” Martin said. And the voter turnout in February would likely be a lot lower than what it will be in November.
How much is at stake? With the Senate currently tied 33-33, the winner of the special election in Senate District 45 will deliver a majority to their party. Depending on what happens in the House elections, the result in SD45 will either break the DFL trifecta at the Capitol or maintain it for another two years.
Ann Johnson Stewart, the DFL nominee, is a civil engineer who served a two-year term in the Senate from 2019 to 2021. She didn’t run for reelection after redistricting altered her district and placed her and Morrison in the same district. Kathleen Fowke, a real estate agent, was the GOP nominee in 2022 but lost to Morrison. Since the campaign is for the remainder of Morrison’s term, the winner can be sworn in as soon as the general election is certified.
The voting fundamentals of the 45th Senate District favor the DFL. Morrison beat Fowke by more than 12 percentage points. The two House seats are split, with GOP Rep. Andrew Meyers representing 45A (where Morrison lost by 393 votes) and DFL Rep. Patty Acomb representing 45B (where Morrison won by 6,094 votes).
Acomb’s seat is one of just six DFL-held seats where Republicans failed to field a candidate, an unforced error because a GOP campaign there could help Fowke with field work and voter turnout. And the DFL is spending heavily in the other House seat where GOP incumbent Andrew Myers is facing Tracey Breazeale.
Other election results from 2022 don’t indicate a swing district either. Tim Walz beat Republican Scott Jensen by 16 percentage points in the governor’s race, and the DFL candidates won more votes in the races for secretary of state (+16.6), attorney general (+5.4) and auditor (+5.2).
Still, as winner-take-all special elections go, the 45th Senate is at least within reach. The last time such a scenario happened in Minnesota was in 2018 when Republican Jeff Howe beat DFLer Joe Perske 57.4% to 42.6% in Senate District 13. Then, as now, the majority party timed the resignation of the incumbent — Sen. Michelle Fischbach — to assure that the election was held at the general election and was not a stand-alone race.
Two of those happened in 2018 when Karla Bigham held a DFL seat in a February Senate District 54 special election and in 2019 when Jason Rarick picked up a DFL-held seat in Senate District 11. But neither of those would have changed the Senate majority. Bigham maintained a one-vote DFL deficit and Rarick increased the GOP majority from one vote to two.
Not that the candidates aren’t running vigorous campaigns to win the district that hugs the shore of Lake Minnetonka and includes towns like Excelsior, Deephaven, Wayzata, Tonka Bay and Mound. Johnson Stewart and Fowke understand that they personify a bigger campaign to hold or break the trifecta.
But as of yet, the race hasn’t attracted the kind of money that it might if it were a stand-alone election. Through July — the date of the most recent state Campaign Finance Board report — Johnson Stewart had raised $52,000 and Fowke, $174,000, including a loan to her own campaign of $125,000
A look at independent expenditure money — where most of the action in state legislative races happens — the race wouldn’t even make the top 10 of state House races, with just $39,000 spent to benefit Johnson Stewart and $185,000 to help Fowke. Even the House race for 45A attracted more independent spending than the Senate campaigns.
Related: Minnesota State Campaign Finance Dashboard
That will change when new reports are released next week. One indication of more money to come is a projection of a six-figure expenditure by the Planned Parenthood of Minnesota Political Action Fund. Tim Stanley, the fund’s executive director, said the organization considers the 45th Senate race crucial. Money for Johnson Stewart had to wait until the conclusion of a contested DFL primary.
“We are in a six-figure spend in that district alone,” Stanley said, with most of the effort being direct voter contact via pink-shirted canvassing squads as well as texts, emails, mailings and some streaming political ads.
In late spring, political strategist Todd Rapp said he thought the 45th race could be the first to reach $3 million in total spending — candidates, party organizations, political committees and independent expenditure campaigns. While it might not hit that number, he said he still expects a lot of money to be spent. Strategies might be changing as well.
“The presidential race may be so consuming that the caucuses are finding an unusual amount of straight ticket voting out there,” said Rapp, a public affairs consultant who is the president and CEO of Rapp Strategies. “If true, that would mean more resources will be poured into preventing dropoff in the last 46 days, rather than persuasion.”
Senate Minority Leader Mark Johnson has hopes of changing his title to “majority leader” when the next session convenes. He agrees that the 45th Senate campaign has “flown under the radar for the most part.
“I don’t know what the ultimate price tag is going to be on this one, because you have so many different groups that are putting in a little bit in this one on both sides,” Johnson said. He, too, cites the presidential campaign as drawing attention from down-ballot races. And all 134 House seats are up with the same control-of-the-Legislature storyline.
“It really takes a lot of the focus off what is happening in District 45,” the East Grand Forks Republican said. But he maintains that it is winnable for his party. “I think we really have an opportunity here to make some change in the state. This is one of those districts where we’re going to be working it to the very end.”
But just as having an incumbent Republican — Myers — campaigning in 45A helps the cause, not having a GOP candidate in 45B hurts it.
“It makes it a little more difficult. All the weight of that side falls on our shoulders to push the message forward, but Kathleen (Fowke) has been working that side hard,” Johnson said. “I’m sorry we don’t have someone there but we’re happy to fight on the B side as well.”
Even though the winner of the Senate race will decide majority control and break the 33-33 tie caused by Morrison’s resignation, there is one additional quirk that could toss the start of session into a tizzy. If the Harris-Walz ticket is successful and Tim Walz resigns his governorship, he will be replaced by Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan who will in turn be replaced by Senate President Bobby Joe Champion.
Related: Peggy Flanagan, Joe Champion could make history with Walz
Even though Champion’s 59th District is one of the most DFL districts in Minnesota, a special election will be needed to elect his replacement and his seat will remain vacant until that can happen, likely sometime in February.
Fischbach waited until the end of session to resign her Senate seat in 2018, thus preserving a GOP majority. But the DFL filed a lawsuit to get the courts to require her to step down immediately. The situation was resolved before the case could reach a conclusion but the state DFL is on record insisting that Senate presidents must take the lieutenant governor position and must do so as soon as there is a vacancy in the state’s No. 2 executive office.
Peter Callaghan
Peter Callaghan covers state government for MinnPost. Follow him on Twitter @CallaghanPeter or email him at pcallaghan@minnpost.com.
